Decision Intelligence

My notes from the decision intelligence class

Quick Summary
Introduction
Decision Maker In Isolation
Decision Intelligence
Data Driven Leadership

Quick Summary

Decision Intelligence
Smarter decisions for better results

What is Decision Intelligence?

Think of your life as a car ride. You can’t control the weather (luck), but you can steer the wheel (your decisions). Good decision-making compounds over time, shaping the direction and quality of your life. This course helps you turn information into better actions, no matter the scale or situation.
The best part? Decision-making is a skill. You can improve it.

Key Takeaways

Decisions vs. Outcomes

A decision is more than just picking between options. It’s how you spend your time, money, and energy.
An outcome is what happens afterward. A good decision doesn’t always lead to a good outcome (luck plays a part).
Avoid outcome bias. Don’t judge decisions based on what happened after. Focus on what was known at the time.

How to Spot a Quality Decision

What info did you gather?
Where did you get it?
How much info did you need, based on the stakes?
Pro tip: Write down what you knew right after making a big decision. It saves you from hindsight bias later.

Why Some Decisions Are Hard

Too many options – The more choices, the harder it is.
Similar options – If they all seem the same, picking one feels impossible.
No clear goal – What are you actually trying to achieve?
High stakes – When mistakes are costly, decisions feel heavier.
Reversible or not – Can you undo this decision?
Emotion – Sometimes, we feel too much about a decision.
Risk vs. Ambiguity – Is the chance of failure known (risk) or unclear (ambiguity)?
Group decisions – When others are involved, it gets complicated.
Social pressure – What will people think?
Internal conflict – Are you getting in your own way?
When a decision feels overwhelming, slow down. Re-evaluate.

Setting Better Goals

Start with what isn’t a priority.
Then, look at your real opportunities.

3 Types of Goals:

Outcome goals – Big-picture wins (e.g., “Be healthier”).
Performance goals – Specific targets (e.g., “Run 5 miles in 45 min”).
Process goals – Daily actions (e.g., “Run every other day”).

Trusting Intuition vs. Data

Small decisions? Trust your gut.
Big, high-stakes decisions? Use data and structure.
Visualize the best and worst-case outcomes. How much is this decision worth to you?

Human Factors in Decisions

Tired? Hungry? Stressed? Your brain doesn’t work as well.
Hack your brain. Make big decisions when you’re well-rested and calm.
The “two selves” problem – Long-term you (future goals) fights short-term you (temptation). Set rules to stay on track.

Being Decisive

Time matters. Don’t rush, but don’t overthink.
Focus on important decisions. Don’t waste energy on trivial ones.
When all options seem bad, pick the least worst and move forward.
If two options seem equal, stop wasting time – just choose one.

Staying Objective

Your brain loves to prove itself right (confirmation bias).
Data helps, but even data can be misleading. Stay aware.
Ask: “Am I just looking for info that agrees with me?”

Better Questions, Better Answers

Don’t jump straight to answers. First, ask:
- What are my options?
- What assumptions am I making?
- What questions should I actually be asking?

Data-Driven Decisions

Define your goals before you look at the data. Otherwise, you’ll just cherry-pick info that fits your pre-made choice.
Use separate data sets for different stages of analysis.
Key step: Ask yourself, “Would this new info actually change my decision?”

Automating Decisions

Repetitive decisions? Automate them. Use data, machine learning, or simple rules to save time.
Examples:
- Use analytics for open-ended exploration.
- Use AI/ML for frequent decisions.

Group Decisions

Pros: More perspectives, less bias.
Cons: Takes longer, and responsibility gets blurry.
Fix it: Limit decision-makers. Use the rest as advisors.
Clarify: Is the group here to decide or just to approve?

Career-Making Decisions

Ask decision-makers: “What would change your mind?”
If nothing could change their mind, it’s not a real decision – it’s persuasion.
Follow-ups:
- How nervous are you?
- How important is this?
- How bad could it go?

Delivering Value & Driving Culture

Find key decision-makers. What do they care about? What data do they trust?
Improve their decisions. Bring better data, ask better questions, and align with their goals.
Automate small, repeatable decisions so you can focus on the big ones.
Remember: Good leadership = good decision-making.
Final tip: Most problems (even technical ones) are people problems. Work well with others, and you’ll go far.
Recommendation: This course is a game-changer. If you want to level up how you think, act, and lead – sign up. You’ll thank yourself later!

Introduction

Two things determine the quality of your life: luck and the quality of your decisions. You can control only one of them
Good decision-making compounds over time
Decision skills are the steering wheels of your life
Decision intelligence is turning information into better action at any scale, under any setting
Decision-making is a skill you can get better at

Decision Maker In Isolation

This section goes over - the differences between a decision and an outcome, outcome bias, and its pitfalls

Decisions vs Outcome

Decision is more than a choice between options. It is an irrevocable allocation of resources. Money, time, opportunity cost
Outcome is how things turn out later. A good decision might or might not lead to a good outcome.
If you show an “outcome bias,” i.e., sometimes good decisions lead to bad outcomes, you will walk away learning the wrong lessons.
Outcome has two components, the quality of decision and luck. Please keep in mind the conditions under which a decision was made.

Dangers of outcome bias

Always evaluate decisions based on what was known at the time the decision was made.
Dont judge decision makers by what was not known at the time a decision was made
Writing down the things known at the time of a decision is critical to learn the right lessons from the decisions.
- Do this immediately after the decision is made. Saves for from hindsight bias
Key ways to evaluate a decision quality -
- which factors did the decision maker consider?
- how did they gather information?
- which sources did they use?
- did they get the right amount of information based on what was at stake?
Key lesson - for important decisions document the decision-making process

Difficult Decisions

what makes certain decisions harder than others?
- Options: Large number of options and particularly combinations of options
- Similarity between options: No clear winner among options
- No clear objectives: Have you considered how a decision is being made? Criteria?
- High Cost: Evaluation and execution cost. How expensive are the mistakes?
- Reversibility: Is it possible to reverse a decision that goes against the definition of a decision above
- Cognitive Load: high cognitive function. A lot of effort.
- Emotion: Does the decision trigger you emotionally?
- Information: Do you have full and reliable information?
- Risk & Ambiguity: Both make a decision much harder
  - Ambiguity - Probability not known. Risk - probability is known
- Timing: Amount of time you have to make a decision
- Group decisions: where the decision has a large impact on others
- Social consequences & social effects: scrutiny and consequences
- Internal conflicts: Conflict of incentives
- Adversial effects: competition
when a decision seems complex, pause, slow down and re-evaluate

How to set Goals

Before setting goals, think about the priorities and opportunities
when thinking about priorities,
- Start by thinking of non-priorities
- Some of these might be other people’s priorities, but not yours
Next start thinking about your opportunities
Two classic mistakes while setting goals are - being too concrete & being too vague
The trick is to have layers of goals that serve different purposes for you. Three kinds of goals -
- Outcome Goals: The win that you are interested in. It might be hard to measure and hence vague. Ex: Be more healthy
- Performance Goal: Measurable and under your control. Can be aspirational. Ex: run 5 miles in under 45 mins
- Process Goal: Measurable and fully under your control.Ex: Run 45mins every other day
Never allow the process goal to take over the most important

Intuition

How much effort, data & information to put towards your decision The key is not to overspend or underspend on a decision
Visualize the best and worst-case scenarios of what could come out of your decision
what are you willing to pay for the perfect decision? When the value isn’t too high - use intuition
Intuition works best for low-value decisions.
Practice using rigor to make low-value decisions.
Intuition also works best under time pressure. Expertise helps here
Unstructured decision making
use the most amount of time on decisions which are -
- High importance
- Plenty of time
- Lack expertise
- needs structure

Human Elements In Decision Making

Humans are influenced by biological factors: Our decision-making can be suboptimal due to factors like lack of sleep, low blood sugar, stress, and strong emotions.
Pre-hacking yourself: Like athletes create optimal conditions for performance, you should create optimal conditions for important decisions. Avoid making critical decisions when you’re not at your best.
Principal-agent problem analogy: Long-term goals (principal) and short-term desires (agent) can conflict. Setting constraints can help align short-term actions with long-term goals.
These points highlight the importance of understanding and managing the biological and psychological factors that affect our decision-making

Being Decisive

Timing of Decisions: Make decisions at the right time to avoid wasting resources.
Prioritization: Indecisiveness often stems from being distracted by lower-priority decisions. Focus on high-priority decisions to avoid cognitive overload.
Handling Emotions: When all options seem bad, choose the least worst one and execute it. Avoid getting stuck in emotional grief over suboptimal choices.
Similar Options: If options are very similar in value, don’t over-optimize. Save your energy for more significant decisions.

Objectivity

Confirmation Bias: This is a psychological effect where your pre-existing beliefs influence how you perceive and interpret information, making it difficult to remain objective.
Impact of Cognitive Biases: Your brain can play tricks on you, affecting how you process information. Even the wording of information can change your decisions.
Data and Objectivity: Data does not automatically equal objectivity. It’s important to be aware of your cognitive biases and how they might affect your interpretation of data.